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Corona Statistics and Minimizing

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

Several people on social media were posting this link to argue that the virus is no big deal and every one is overreacting. My response:

Yes, all that the virus does is bring death forward. But when it does that for 15 to 20% of everyone over 70, and does it all in the same month, that becomes a very big problem. It has a 1% death rate even among perfectly healthy people. Even the flu kills healthy people, but this rate is 5x the seasonal flu. Not the end of the world, but still a very big deal.

I can’t speak from my own experience, since I don’t work in a hospital. But from what I hear from those who do, it is not pretty. I’m just astonished how many people don’t know how to project a trend into the future even five days. Let’s see what the “it’s all hysteria” crowd have to say in a month.

Ultimately time will tell. When the potentially vulnerable is 20% of the population, it is hard to isolate them. I predict we will all be arguing about whether it was an over-reaction for years. I also predict that once the bodies start piling up, people will stop suggesting that it is all a hoax. We may still be over-reacting, but it is no hoax.

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