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The numbers behind the lockdown

The statistics I’ve seen have the Covid-19 death rate for people under 55 at about 0.8%, or about 4x higher than the seasonal flu. Not so bad. Except that 75% of the US population is under 55. That’s 245 million people. If they all got the virus in a two-month period that is 1,960,000 deaths. Divide that number in half if you think only half the population gets it. Divide it in half again. And again, just because. That is still 245,000 deaths, and that is just the under 55’s; you still have to add the quarter of the population who are over 55 and are much more susceptible. In a typical year about 2.8 million people in the US die of all causes, or about 230,000 per month. And our profit-optimized health system runs at about 85% capacity. You can’t add 100,000+ per month to that without utter chaos, even if 96% of the under-55 population doesn’t need hospitalization. Which is why so many people are calling for physical distancing and shutting down public gatherings.

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